As the festive season is almost near, AI is making a push to come out on top once again. Adobe’s latest forecast reveals a huge 520% surge in AI-assisted online shopping during the 2025 U.S. holiday season, with a record $253.4 billion in sales to be generated.
This signals that AI-powered tools are no longer future promises but central to how shoppers find, choose, and buy gifts. From casual browsers to serious deal hunters, shoppers are turning to AI tools to cut through the noise, discover the best prices, and find exactly what they want.
Adobe’s latest findings, based on an analysis of over 1 trillion retail site visits via Adobe Analytics, reveal a clear shift in how we shop online. The explosive increase in AI traffic, following a 1,300% spike from 2023 to 2024, reflects consumers’ growing reliance on AI-powered tools like chatbots, intelligent search, and personalized shopping assistants.
These technologies are becoming integral to the shopping experience, particularly during peak periods like the 10 days before Thanksgiving, when online footfall surges.
What’s Behind the AI Holiday Boom?
The data shows that consumers are using AI primarily for pre-purchase research, with 53% of surveyed shoppers indicating they may use AI services to scout products this season. Beyond research, AI’s capabilities in recommendation engines (40% usage), deal hunting (36%), and gift inspiration (30%) are reshaping the shopper journey much earlier in the funnel than traditional marketing touchpoints.
“You have consumers dealing with a lot in the broader economy,” said Vivek Pandya, director at Adobe Digital Insights. “We anticipate them taking advantage of these major sales moments, and we still see them leaning on the online sector as an area to get better deals.”
A few key factors are driving this rapid growth in AI-assisted shopping. First off, with inflation and economic worries still looming, shoppers are more focused than ever on snagging the best deals and sticking to their budgets. AI, with its ability to rapidly analyze thousands of SKUs and find the best prices or personalized product matches, acts as a critical ally for shoppers aiming for the best holiday bargain.
Second, mobile commerce continues to dominate, with Adobe forecasting mobile sales to hit a record 56.1% of total holiday online transactions, up from 54.5% last year. Larger-screen smartphones and seamless AI-powered apps are making mobile shopping more attractive and frictionless than ever.
Finally, the buy now, pay later services are becoming increasingly popular and are expected to drive over $20 billion in holiday spending this year. AI helps by recommending payment options tailored to shoppers’ financial situations, helping ease the strain on the shoppers.
OpenAI’s recent launch of ‘Instant Checkout‘, a feature that turns ChatGPT into a full-fledged shopping platform where U.S. users can discover and purchase products directly within their chat conversations without needing to leave the interface, shows us how AI is removing friction from the shopping journey.
With partnerships already secured with major platforms like Etsy and Shopify, Instant Checkout streamlines the path from product discovery to purchase confirmation in a matter of seconds, making conversational shopping a reality. Powered by an open-source protocol co-developed with Stripe, this tool not only simplifies the buying process but also reduces friction, making shopping more conversational and intuitive.
Can Retailers Benefit?
For retailers, Adobe’s forecast sends a clear message. Investing in AI is essential to profit in the holiday season. Embedding AI-powered chatbots, personalized recommendation engines, and curated shopping experiences should be core to holiday campaign strategies this year. Shoppers today expect speed, relevance, and smoother interactions so brands that deliver this stand to gain more sales and loyalty.
That said, the rapid surge in AI also brings new challenges. Retailers need to be careful of customer data and clear about how AI influences their choices. If shoppers start feeling uneasy or think companies are misusing their information, it can definitely erode the trust that’s so crucial in a busy buying season.
“As AI becomes a core part of retail, transparency and consumer trust must keep pace. Retailers must clearly communicate how AI influences recommendations and protect customer data rigorously,” said retail analyst Sarah Green.
Customers are already showing hype over AI-powered shopping. As AI technology advances, it’s set to go beyond just online shopping, blending seamlessly with physical stores through features like augmented reality try-ons, virtual shopping guides, and instant, personalized recommendations right on the shop floor.
