“AI-related issuance has accounted for a little over half of total issuance growth” year to date, Moody’s CEO Rob Fauber said on the company’s Q3 2026 earnings call on October 21, 2026, adding that its share of revenue growth is “closer to 40%.”
The growth is concentrated in digital infrastructure. Fauber said digital infrastructure issuance rose approximately fourfold from Q3 2025. CFO Noémie Heuland said investment-grade revenue rose 18% on 16% issuance growth in the quarter, supported by AI infrastructure and hyperscaler financing.
To rate that activity, Moody's has introduced a cross-sector digital infrastructure methodology covering AI infrastructure build-outs, according to the company.
Fauber cited Moody's rating analysts' estimate of "something like $800 billion of CapEx for 2026," which they expect to grow to "north of $1 trillion" in 2027.
On the near term, Fauber said Moody's has "assumed that the hyperscalers have done most of their financing for the year," meaning any further hyperscaler issuance in the fourth quarter would be upside to its outlook.
The company expects Q4 issuance to fall by a mid-teens percentage year over year and maintained its guidance for high-single-digit revenue growth in Moody's Investors Service for the full year.
Moody's Investors Service revenue was $1.09 billion in Q3, down 1%, with issuance down 2%. Moody's also raised its full-year outlook for first-time mandates to 900–950.
On the Moody's Analytics side, Fauber said customers now use the company's AI in three ways: "AI that's embedded in our own applications," through agents and workflows, and through direct MCP and API access.
MCP users "more than quadrupled" and usage rose more than tenfold over the last three months. "The number of customers paying for MCP access has more than doubled in this last quarter," Fauber said, adding that it is "still off of a small base."
Analysts using the MCP are "reaching 3 times more content on a working day." Fauber said one large bank with 8,000 users on a single AI surface wants Moody's content on that surface.
Clear Street analyst Owen Lau asked how Moody's will avoid cannibalizing its own platform while distributing data through AI models and MCP. Fauber said pricing for MCP content may include "elements of consumption-based pricing," with more detail expected in early 2027.
Fauber also said Moody's AI-enabled lending suite is "one of our fastest-growing offerings," with lending ARR up 12%, and described its Banking Decision Intelligence product as "almost like an auditable digital worker for banks," with three live customers.
Heuland said Moody's is "beginning to capture efficiencies from AI, helping us manage headcount growth," with the Moody's Analytics adjusted operating margin rising 100 basis points to 35.3%.
Moody's reported Q3 2026 revenue of $2.02 billion, up 1%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $4.14, up 6%. Moody's Analytics revenue was $936 million, up 8% on an organic constant currency basis, and ARR reached $3.69 billion, up 8%.